Investment the
European commercial real estate market plummeted 12% in the first half of the
year, according to new research from Cushman & Wakefield.
The drop over the
first six months of 2016 is despite European investment activity rising 9% to
€56.8bn (£49bn) during the second quarter of the year.
The first half of the year totalled €109bn, 12% down on the same
period in 2015, with the UK - Europe’s largest market - acting as a drag on
overall European performance.
Concern over Brexit and uncertainty surrounding the decision was a
significant factor in restricting the volume of trading in the UK to €32bn in
the first half of the year, a 35% decrease on the same period a year ago.
Nigel Almond, head of EMEA capital markets research at Cushman
& Wakefield, said: “After excluding pan-European portfolios, activity
across Continental Europe continues to shine with volumes in the first half of
2016 reaching €77bn, a 3% increase on the €74bn recorded in the same period
last year. Despite seeing a rise quarter-on-quarter in Germany, volumes for the
first half of the year reached €18bn, a 26% drop on H1 2015. France saw modest
growth of 2% over the same period.”
A spike in investment activity in Sweden has seen trading surpass
French volumes in the second quarter and over the first half of 2016. At €7.3bn
Sweden registered its highest-ever quarterly volumes pushing up volumes for the
half year to €10.6bn. This is more than the €10bn traded in the whole of 2015.
Activity was buoyed by Castellum talking control of the Norporten portfolio in
Sweden from the Second and Sixth National Pension funds for over €2bn.
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) also recorded significant
investment growth to surpass €4bn in the first half of 2016, a 60% increase on
the same period the previous year.
Across Europe as a whole, 19 of the 29 markets tracked recorded an
increase in first half volumes compared to the first half of last year. Domestic
investors took the opportunity to increase their share in a weaker market,
accounting for 61% of activity, the highest share for the first half of a year
since 2013. This was largely upheld by stronger domestic activity in France
with increased activity also evident in Germany and Sweden. On the other hand,
non-European shares slipped to 21%, well below the near 30% levels that have
been seen in recent years.
Beyond continued activity from globally-sourced funds, the next
key sources of non-European investment were from the US, Singapore, South
Africa and Hong Kong. The growth in activity from South Africa reflects, in
part, a growing number of listed funds targeting the CEE region.
Unlisted funds continued to dominate as the most active buyers
over the first half of 2016. Of significance has been the growth of private
companies and individuals, who took a 24% share of the market during this
period, reflecting strong levels of investment in the UK, Germany, Sweden and
the Netherlands. The majority of this was from domestic companies or
individuals, although the UK did see over a third of capital sourced from
overseas investors. On the contrary, institutions and listed companies were
less active during the first half of the year.
Although markets have started to settle in the wake of the UK’s
decision to leave the EU, uncertainty still remains. The impact appears to be
greatest in the UK, although even here, while some deals in the market at the
time of the vote have fallen away the majority continue to progress, especially
across Central London compared to the rest of the UK.