South
East office investment grew 22.3% to £559m in the first quarter of 2018,
compared to the same period last year, and was 73% up on the 10-year first
quarter average, according to new research from BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Investment in
Hammersmith accounted for over 56% of total volumes with five transactions
during the period, including Spelthorne Council’s purchase of 12 Hammersmith
Grove for £170m, a net initial yield of 5.25%.
Hugh White, head of office
investment at BNP Paribas Real Estate, said: “We anticipate further yield
compression for prime town centre assets following the trend witnessed in
Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol in Q4 2017.
“However, we believe
rewards will be reaped by investors who […] who are willing to focus on short
income town centre offices and tier two towns that are only just witnessing
rental jumps.
“The challenge looking
ahead will be finding value in a stock-starved market.”
This growth in the South
East demonstrated the ongoing appetite for income in a low return environment
and the diverse range of investors with US private equity firms, Middle Eastern
and Asia Pacific investors, as well as domestic investors all retaining a keen
interest in the market, BNP Paribas Real Estate said.
However, take-up in the
first three months of the year was down 12.9% to 627,962 sq ft on the same
period last year and 6.8% down on the 10-year quarterly average, BNP Paribas
Real Estate reported.
The firm added that the
region remains key for inward investment due to its strong market fundamentals,
vibrant economy, and thriving technology sector.
Smaller size bands
dominated the market making up 63.6% of overall take up within the 5,000 –
20,000 sq ft size band. Black & Decker’s lease deal for 48,000 sq ft at 270
Bath Road in Slough was the largest in the first quarter of 2018.
The trend towards shorter
lease lengths also continued, with 61.8% of leases agreed at ten years or below
adding weight to occupiers’ increasing desire for flexibility and optimisation
of their occupied space.
Competition, despite the
fall in demand, also increased for high quality stock driving prime rental
growth. In Maidenhead prime rental levels rose to a new market peak of £39 per
sq ft, the firm said.
The low number of
speculative development starts has been helping keep prime rental levels up and
with just one scheme beginning in the first quarter – Aviva Investors’ 63,000
sq ft Victoria Gate project in Woking – it looks set to continue. Over the
course of 2018, 480,500 sq ft across nine schemes is expected to complete.
Ed Smith, head of Nnational
markets office agency at BNP Paribas Real Estate, said: “Looking ahead,
identified demand levels have risen to 4.6m sq ft from 4.25m sq ft in Q4 2017.
This, coupled with the circa 600,000 sq ft currently under offer, suggests we
are in line for a stronger Q2 and overall positive outlook for the remainder of
the year.”